Approximate Bayesian Computation and Insurance

Patrick Laub

UNSW Sydney, School of Risk and Actuarial Studies

February 3, 2023


What is the bias?

We flip a coin three times and get:

Heads

Tails

Heads

What is \(\theta = \mathbb{P}(\text{Heads})\)?

Let’s flip coins

https://pat-laub.github.io/abc-party/game

\(\theta\)-biased coin gives \((\text{H, T, H})\)

Getting an exact match is hard…